Development of the Triggering Mechanism Tender in Malawi - 42718419

Expression of Interest are invited for Development of the Triggering Mechanism for the Scale-up of the Social Cash Transfer Program for Drought in Malawi.
REQUEST FOR EXPRESSION OF INTEREST FOR SELECTION # 1268399
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Selection Information
Assignment Title
Development of the triggering mechanism for the scale-up of the Social Cash Transfer Program for drought in Malawi
Publication Date
07-May-2020
Expression of Interest Deadline
19-May-2020 at 11:59:59 PM (Eastern Time – Washington D.C.)
Language of Notice
English
Selection Notice
Assignment Country
· MW - Malawi
Funding Sources
The World Bank Group intends to finance the assignment/services under:
· BB - BANK BUDGET
· TF0B1323 - TA for Malawi Social Support for Resilient Livelihoods
Individual/Firm
The consultant will be a firm.
Assignment Description
SELECTION FOR CONSULTANTS BY THE WORLD BANK GROUP
REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST
ASSIGNMENT OVERVIEW
Assignment Title: 1268399 - Development of the triggering mechanism for the scale-up of the Social Cash Transfer Program for drought in Malawi
Assignment Countries:

- Malawi
ASSIGNMENT DESCRIPTION
Background
Malawis economy and the wellbeing of its people are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Around 83.2% of Malawis population lives in rural areas and 80% of the labor force is employed in the agriculture sector, which is mainly composed of smallholder farmers relying on rain fed agriculture. Malawi is prone to a variety of hazards, of which drought is the one that has affected more people historically.
The World Bank Board of Executives recently approved the Social Support for Resilient Livelihoods Project (SSRLP), with the objective to support the Government of Malawi (GoM) in improving resilience among the poor and vulnerable population and to strengthen the national platform for safety nets in Malawi. The project includes a subcomponent that aims to design, implement and finance a shock responsive (or scalable) mechanism for the Social Cash Transfer Program (SCTP) to provide additional assistance to poor and vulnerable households affected by drought. This will build on the unconditional cash transfer mechanism of the SCTP which was introduced over a decade ago and has expanded to cover almost 200, 000 households. Similar mechanisms have been implemented in Kenya and Uganda. In practice to implement this component the GoM needs to design a scalability mechanism which incorporates: (i) when to scale-up for drought, (ii) where to scale-up, (iii) which households to cover and (iv) what level of payment to provide. GoM will also need to construct a financing plan to fund the scale-up. This contract requests the construction of a mechanism to define (i) when to scale-up for drought and is a key input in the design of the scalability mechanism more broadly.
The SCTP scale-up will be based on a dual trigger approach using:

(a) modeled primary hard trigger(s) used to capture the impact of drought; and

(b) complementary secondary trigger(s) used as a fail-safe to capture the impacts of drought which may not be captured under the primary trigger but are still available in a timely manner.
The efficacy of the SCTP scalability component depends on the design of the underlying triggers on which any payout will be based, and it should therefore meet the following criteria:

Simple. The design must be transparent and simple to allow the GoM to monitor it and make appropriate SCTP scale-up decisions when a trigger threshold has been reached. A simple index is important for the clear understanding and communication of its performance with all relevant stakeholders in Malawi.

Objective. The trigger should be based on objective, quantitative and auditable indices where there is a clear evidence base. The initial review should incorporate both primary indices (based on weather and remote-sensing data) as well as secondary indies (based on further remote sensed data, yield data or other food insecurity measures).

Accurate. It needs be operationally relevant and therefore as accurately as possible reflect the agriculture and, more importantly, welfare conditions on the ground. In the case of the primary trigger, the design does not need to be limited to one index . The consultant should set out how the mechanism has been stress tested to allow for climate risk.

Timely. Data for the index must be available at a frequent manner to allow for timeliness of response. Also, ideally reliable time series data will exist for the last 20-30 years, although sensitivity tests should be performed to allow for climate change impacts in underlying data (this may result in more weight being placed on data in more recent years).

Modellable. The costs associated to scaling up SCTP will be partly covered by a risk transfer instrument. The primary trigger should therefore be probabilistically modellable in order to be insurable.
Objective
The objective of this assignment is to design a dual trigger mechanism for scaling up the Social Cash Transfer Program (STCP) in Malawi to provide additional assistance to poor and vulnerable households in response to drought. The consultant should provide a proposal of a minimum of three options for the triggering thresholds for scale-up that cover different frequencies and severities of drought.
This will require a review of the available data, the development of a drought risk model and indices building off this, including for the primary and secondary triggers, plus an analysis and validation of proposed trigger thresholds. With this technical deliverable the GoM can finalize the broader design of the scalability mechanism.
Given current global travel restrictions it is likely that most of this work will be completed as desk-based. If restrictions are relaxed the chosen consultant would be expected to travel at the request of the TTL.
Activities
1. A review of the available data sources. This should include a summary of characteristics on whether the data is objective, timely, understandable, cost associated to regular monitoring, data cleansing issues, technical issues, stakeholder buy in, etc.
2. In-depth screening of available risk models and indices using the data selected following activity 1. If data is not already incorporated into an index or model, construct a risk model and design near real-time indices to correlate with drought conditions. Prepare initial summary report with information from activity 1 & 2.
3. Based on inputs from the Government of Malawi on activities 1 & 2, design the triggering mechanism and suggest a minimum of three proposals for the triggering thresholds for scale-up in a small number of prioritized districts. This will include developing a technical report with proposals, as well as a policy note and a simple tool that can help government with policy decisions.
4. Design monitoring mechanisms for the selected triggering mechanism.
5. Review of triggering mechanism after first year of implementation.
The mechanism will be independently reviewed. All information should therefore be accessible, and key staff conducting this assignment should be available to liaise with external reviewers as needed.
For more detail information on activities and outputs please see the Terms of Reference (ToR).
Timeline
The assignment is expected to begin in May 2020 for competition by October 2020 with intermediate deliverables.
ELIGIBILITY
Firm

1. Minimum 15 years work experience combining expertise in GIS systems, catastrophe risk modelling and risk visualization.

2. Experts skills in drought risk assessment and modelling, including hazard and vulnerability agricultural data collection, including crop cutting experiments.

3. Experience in providing quantitative actuarial support to risk modelling.

4. Proven experience with index development in Africa including collaboration with local stakeholders to design and launch weather indexes.

5. Experience in Malawi is highly desirable.

6. Experience in scalable/shock-responsive social protection would be an advantage.
Lead Staff

1. Masters degree or equivalent in remote sensing for drought and flood risk monitoring, actuarial science, risk modelling, financial mathematics, disaster management or a similar discipline required.

2. Experience in Sub-Saharan Africa.

3. Experience in working with development finance institutions (DFIs) and a range of key stakeholders including the private sector, government and international donors.

4. Experience in working with private and public sector institutions, and ability to access historic and current data.

5. Exceptional relationship and inter-personal skills.

6. Excellent oral and written English language skills. Chichewa language skills would be a plus.

7. Project management experience required.
SUBMISSION REQUIREMENTS

The World Bank Group now invites eligible firms to indicate their interest in providing the services. Interested firms must provide information indicating that they are qualified to perform the services (brochures, description of similar assignments, experience in similar conditions, availability of appropriate skills among staff, etc. for firms; CV and cover letter for individuals). Please note that the total size of all attachments should be less than 5MB. Consultants may associate to enhance their qualifications.
Interested firms are hereby invited to submit expressions of interest.
Expressions of Interest should be submitted, in English, electronically through World Bank Group eConsultant2 (https://wbgeconsult2.worldbank.org/wbgec/index.html)
NOTES

Following this invitation for Expression of Interest, a shortlist