Supply Study for Downstream Petroleum Tender, Sudan - 38622282

Procurement Summary

Country : Sudan

Summary : Supply Study for Downstream Petroleum

Deadline : 06 Jan 2020

Other Information

Notice Type : Tender

TOT Ref.No.: 38622282

Document Ref. No. : 1265787

Competition : ICB

Financier : World Bank (WB)

Purchaser Ownership : -

Tender Value : Refer Document

Purchaser's Detail

Purchaser : THE WORLD BANK GROUP
Khartoum 2, street 39, Plot 39 P.O. Box 229 Khartoum Tel: +249-156-553-000
Sudan
Email :sudanalert@worldbank.org
URL :https://www.worldbank.org/en/

Tender Details

Expression of Interest are invited for Sudan Cost-of-Supply Study for Downstream Petroleum.

The consultant will be a firm.

Assignment Description

Background

The government of Sudan has not raised fuel prices for a number of years while the currency has been depreciating sharply. Sudan`s inflation is running at about 60 percent a year, accompanied by corresponding currency depreciation in the parallel market. The official exchange rate and the parallel market exchange rate began to diverge in 2009, and despite significant official depreciation since 2018, the difference has been widening. The market exchange rate is nearly twice as weak as the official rate.

This has meant that fuels are heavily subsidized and their prices are among the lowest in the world and are certainly the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. The subsidy delivery mechanism is to a large measure through exchange-rate subsidies borne not by the finance ministry but by the Central Bank of Sudan (viz., off-budget subsidy), while the balance is borne by the finance ministry through the government budget.

This year, about two thirds of fuels consumed in Sudan have been domestically refined products and the balance has been imported. Crude oil is also imported for domestic refining. The power sector does not pay for fuels and the finance ministry instead fully pays for the fuels used in thermal generation.

Scope of work

The study will quantify reasonable costs in each stage of the supply chain, starting with trade-parity pricing of each fuel. Costs of storage, trucking, and retailing, and of LPG cylinder management will be estimated.

The study team will carry out the following tasks:
(1) Identify data gaps and consolidate needed data.
Cost data (some of which are already being collected by the Ministry of Energy and Mining)
Suitable free-on-board prices adjusted for quality as needed, ocean freight, insurance, port handling fees, and charges including typical demurrage charges and financing costs
Storage, transportation, and retail costs for gasoline, kerosene, diesel and fuel oil
Storage, bottling, transportation, and retail costs for LPG
Supply information
Information on the trucking industry, LPG bottling plants, depots, retail types
Scales of operation (sizes, throughput, spare capacity availability), to be provided by the Ministry of Energy and Mining
Some information about the refinery (please note this is not a refining study, and the cost of refining is relevant only to the extent that if costs are estimated to be much higher than import parity, that would need to be flagged to the government), to be provided by the Ministry of Energy and Mining
Key locations where costs will be estimated (which cities/towns), to be provided by the Ministry of Energy and Mining

(2) Calculate costs under two scenarios: (i) actual costs in Sudan in recent years capturing different levels of global refined product prices and exchange rates, and (ii) benchmark costs in comparable countries (in terms of market size, consumer concentration, distances, and infrastructure) under efficient operation.

(3) Examine aspects of the market structure, the regulatory framework, and/or policies that may contribute to cost or margin inflation. Identify and assess major barriers and risks to reducing costs.

(4) Propose a formula for calculating fuel prices at the cost recovery level and corresponding price subsidies, how to adjust parameters to update cost-recovery price levels, and options for phasing out the price subsidies in terms of timing and formulae to be used, if any.

Consultant qualifications
Required
Extensive experience dealing with the downstream petroleum sector in developing countries
Experience assessing costs of fuel supply (imports, refining, trucking, storage, retailing) in developing countries
Access to shipping rates and costs, for example access to the Worldscale Data Base combined with the Platts Clean Tankerwire
Experience dealing with LPG marketing (storage, cylinder management, retailing)
Familiarity with price controls and fuel subsidies
Experience dealing with pricing of petroleum products covering imports and refining down to end-user pricing
No conflicts of interest or dispute with fuel suppliers operating in Sudan
Preferences
Experience with the downstream petroleum sector in Sub-Saharan Africa
One or more team members with knowledge of Arabic
Knowledge of the downstream oil sector in Sudan

Approach

The World Bank is working with the Ministry of Energy and Mining to collect as much data in (1) above as possible before the start of the study. However, the consultant hired is expected to have access to internationally available proprietary data, such as Platts and Worldscale, as well as benchmark costs in comparator countries.

The contract will be a lump-sum contract for renumeration and office expenses. Trip expenses (airfare and accommodation plus personnel renumeration corresponding to the number of days on the trip) will be reimbursed separately (viz., in addition to the lump-sum contract amount).

For expressions of interest, we are interested in experience of direct relevance to the study.

Qualification Criteria

· 1. Provide information showing that they are qualified in the field of the assignment. *

· 2. Provide information on the technical and managerial capabilities of the firm. *

· 3. Provide information on their core business and years in business. *

· 4. Provide information on the qualifications of key staff. *

Documents

 Tender Notice