Modular Development of a Catastrophe Risk Model Tender - 38428261

Procurement Summary

Country: Mozambique

Summary: Modular Development of a Catastrophe Risk Model

Deadline: 11 Dec 2019

Posting Date: 29 Nov 2019

Other Information

Notice Type: Tender

TOT Ref.No.: 38428261

Document Ref. No.: 1265760

Competition: ICB

Financier: World Bank (WB)

Purchaser Ownership: -

Tender Value: Refer Document

CPV Classification

45223810 - Prefabricated constructions

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Tender Details

Expression of Interest are invited for Modular Development of a Catastrophe Risk Model for Mozambique.
Expression of Interest Deadline
11-Dec-2019 at 11:59:59 PM (Eastern Time – Washington D.C.)
Language of Notice
English
Selection Notice
Assignment Country
· MZ - Mozambique
Funding Sources
The World Bank Group intends to finance the assignment/services under:
· BB - BANK BUDGET
· TF0A9638 - Strengthening Financial Protection against Disasters in Mozambique
Individual/Firm
The consultant will be a firm.
Assignment Description
SELECTION FOR CONSULTANTS BY THE WORLD BANK GROUP
REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST
Electronic Submissions through World Bank Group eConsultant2

https://wbgeconsult2.worldbank.org/wbgec/index.html
ASSIGNMENT OVERVIEW
Assignment Title: 1265760 - mMdular development of a catastrophe risk model for Mozambique
Assignment Countries:

- Mozambique
ASSIGNMENT DESCRIPTION
This assignment involves the following components: production of risk profiles; the collection of new, and refinement of existing, exposure data and the creation of a tropical cyclone (TC) hazard dataset for Mozambique; modular development of a catastrophe risk model to allow a plug and play methodology for the inclusion of externally developed vulnerability curves, and exposure datasets; real time loss modelling methodology.

The goal of the project is to develop a probabilistic catastrophe model to enable the quantitative assessment of tropical cyclone risk which could support financial risk transfer. The model therefore should meet acceptable scientific, engineering, financial and commercial standards as required by international (re)insurance markets.

The perils being considered for this assignment are tropical cyclone wind, storm surge and excessive rainfall (TC and non-TC precipitation). The perils to be covered are tentative with the minimum requirement of a tropical cyclone wind only model to enable successful risk transfer by November 2020. The Client and the World Bank request feedback and collaboration on the feasibility of the inclusion of each peril in the catastrophe risk model and under what timescales.

A separate Expression of Interest outlines the development of bespoke vulnerability curves appropriate for the regions construction and occupancy classes related to buildings only.

The specific components are:

1. Production of tropical cyclone hazard layers for Mozambique. The hazard layers should be provided GIS-compatible formats, for a range of return periods from 5 to 1, 000 years.

2. Design, alongside the World Bank and Government of Mozambique, an appropriate risk metric/index to reflect the social and physical impacts of tropical cyclones on Mozambique, for example, population affected weighted index. The Consultant will also work alongside other Consultants to design the vulnerability curves associated with this metric.

3. Production of an exposure dataset for Mozambique with a resolution suitable for tropical cyclone wind as well as storm surge and excessive rain hazards (i.e. sub 1 km) with reference to the risk metric define in activity 2.

4. The production of a hazard, loss and/or index risk profile for Mozambique based on the data generated through the previous activities. These profiles should be based on stochastic modelling with at least 10, 000 simulated years. Event loss tables, calibration to historical events, AAL, basis risk assessment and the usual metrics are expected.

5. The probabilistic catastrophe model should allow the assessment of both parametric (pure and refined) and model loss/index based (re)insurance structures. This should include the design of a calculation agent methodology.

The results of this effort will be used to support Disaster Risk Management and Disaster Risk Financing efforts within Mozambique and enable government agencies to better understand the physical and fiscal costs of disasters. Ultimately, it is the intention of the Government of Mozambique to use the developed risk model to design and bring to market a risk transfer product for Tropical Cyclone wind.
FUNDING SOURCE
The World Bank Group intends to finance the assignment / services described below under the following:

- BANK BUDGET

- Strengthening Financial Protection against Disasters in Mozambique
ELIGIBILITY
Eligibility restrictions apply:

[Please type list of restrictions]
INDIVIDUAL / FIRM PROFILE

The consultant will be a firm.
SUBMISSION REQUIREMENTS

The World Bank Group now invites eligible firms to indicate their interest in providing the services. Interested firms must provide information indicating that they are qualified to perform the services (brochures, description of similar assignments, experience in similar conditions, availability of appropriate skills among staff, etc. for firms; CV and cover letter for individuals). Please note that the total size of all attachments should be less than 5MB. Consultants may associate to enhance their qualifications.
Interested firms are hereby invited to submit expressions of interest.
Expressions of Interest should be submitted, in English, electronically through World Bank Group eConsultant2 (https://wbgeconsult2.worldbank.org/wbgec/index.html)
NOTES

Following this invitation for Expression of Interest, a shortlist of qualified firms will be formally invited to submit proposals. Shortlisting and selection will be subject to the availability of funding.
Only those firms which have been shortlisted will receive notification. No debrief will be provided to firms which have not been shortlisted.
Qualification Criteria
· 1. Provide information showing that the firm has advanced analytical skills, catastrophe risk modelling expertise, quantitative financial expertise, a strong knowledge of parametric insurance, excellent presentation skills and be able to develop strong relationships with the clients.
· 2. The Consultants will closely interact and report to the World Bank team that will accept the deliverables.
· 3. Provide information showing that the firm is qualified in the field of the assignment.
· 4. Provide information on the technical and managerial capabilities of the firm; qualifications of key staff; information on core business and years in business

Documents

 Tender Notice