Cameroon Power Market Study Tender, Cameroon - 42686560

Procurement Summary

Country : Cameroon

Summary : Cameroon Power Market Study

Deadline : 13 May 2020

Other Information

Notice Type : Tender

TOT Ref.No.: 42686560

Document Ref. No. : 1268411

Competition : ICB

Financier : Self Financed

Purchaser Ownership : -

Tender Value : Refer Document

Purchaser's Detail

Purchaser : THE WORLD BANK GROUP
Nouvelle Route Bastos B.P. 1128, Yaoundé Tel: +237-2-22-50-38-15
Cameroon
Email :cameroonalert@worldbank.org

Tender Details

Expression of Interest are invited for Cameroon Power Market Study.

request for expression of interest for selection # 1268411

This Request for Expression of Interest is for a Firm Selection. Please log in as a valid Firm User if you wish to express interest in this selection.

Selection Information

Assignment Title

Cameroon Power Market Study

Publication Date

05-May-2020

Expression of Interest Deadline

13-May-2020 at 11:59:59 PM (Eastern Time – Washington D.C.)

Language of Notice

English

Selection Notice

Assignment Country

· CM - Cameroon

Funding Sources

The World Bank Group intends to finance the assignment/services under:

· BB - BANK BUDGET

· TF0A7075 - IFC CMAW - SSA Region - CAS Energy

Individual/Firm

The consultant will be a firm.

Assignment Description

IFC is currently evaluating some investment opportunities in the power sector in Cameroon and is looking to develop a deeper understanding of the growth path of the sector. As part of this effort, IFC requires a full analysis of the demand-supply situation of the Cameroon power sector and the different markets in the region given potential interconnection projects. Specifically, IFC will need to carry out an updated demand analysis and understand scenarios of power import/export under different scenarios across a few specific T-Line interconnections planned to connect Cameroon to Chad and Nigeria in the next few years and the impact these scenarios will have on the supply (and demand) scenarios available for Cameroon.
IFC needs to understand the power sector demand and supply outlook for Cameroon for the next 10 to 15 years, with granular analysis on key bottlenecks and constraints in the network and the resulting impact on dispatch of potential projects: 1) Nachtigal Amont; 2) Kikot Aval (different scenarios between 400-700 MW with potential phasing), considering different technologies and the competitiveness and exposure to stranded asset risks of the proposed projects.
The study will focus on Cameroon and the Kikot hydro project but cover background information on the region and key cross-border projects that could be relevant to Cameroons power sector.

Attachments

· Optional TOR File

Qualification Criteria

· 1. Provide information showing that they are qualified in the field of the assignment and have a proven track record in similar projects.

· 2. Provide information on the technical and managerial capabilities of the firm.

· 3. Provide information on their specific regional experience - Sub Saharan Africa power market studies.

· 4. Provide information on the qualifications of key staff.


Terms of Reference – Cameroon Power Market Study


Background:
IFC is currently evaluating some investment opportunities in the power sector in Cameroon and is looking to develop a deeper understanding of the growth path of the sector. As part of this effort, IFC requires a full analysis of the demand-supply situation of the Cameroon power sector and the different markets in the region given potential interconnection projects. Specifically, IFC will need to carry out an updated demand analysis and understand scenarios of power import/export under different scenarios across a few specific T-Line interconnections planned to connect Cameroon to Chad and Nigeria in the next few years and the impact these scenarios will have on the supply (and demand) scenarios available for Cameroon.

Objective:
The main objective of this study is to provide an assessment of the alternative electric generating projects in Cameroon and to determine if such projects are appropriate for the development of the Cameroon Power System with specific focus on the Nachtigal commissioning and the following 10-year horizon, including the Kikot hydro project. The study should consider the potential candidate projects and import/export flows.

Scope of the work
IFC needs to understand the power sector demand and supply outlook for Cameroon for the next 10 to 15 years, with granular analysis on key bottlenecks and constraints in the network and the resulting impact on dispatch of potential projects: 1) Nachtigal Amont; 2) Kikot Aval (different scenarios between 400-700 MW with potential phasing), considering different technologies and the competitiveness and exposure to stranded asset risks of the proposed projects.
The study will focus on Cameroon and the Kikot hydro project but cover background information on the region and key cross-border projects that could be relevant to Cameroon’s power sector. Given the size and characteristics of the different countries in the region, the consultant should propose the proper regional or country split for the study, but focus should be put on: Nigeria, Chad, CAR. The study will include a general description of each country’s electricity market. It will then provide a supply / demand forecast for the various countries in the region running sensitivities including but not limited to: GDP growth, availability of gas, fuel prices, hydrology, transmission, distribution system growth, etc. Finally, as part of the supply forecast, particular focus will be put on the new power plants currently being studied or developed in Cameroon. A critical analysis of the stage of development of the plants will be combined with an evaluation of the economic merit order of the plants, and a forecast of dispatch of the plants, based on least cost generation.
1. Cameroon Market Overview
(a) Supply & (b) Demand in terms of capacity and energy (MW, GWH) including, but not limited to:
• Generation Portfolio – Public; IPPs; and imports/exports
• Demand Forecasts for the next 10-15 years (Top-Down and Bottom-up update)

(c) Constraints including, but not limited to:
• Physical PPAs, Energy Supply Contracts – current and future
• Provide an analysis of fuel supply options and any constraints if at all (production constraints, import constraints, pipeline constraints, etc.)
• Key bottlenecks and comment on any future transmission constraints that could occur in the next 10 years and on curtailment expectations -if any; highlight the level of renewable penetration at which the grid could have capacity or stability issues
• Analysis and Impact of seasonality and/or intermittency
• Export/import physical and regulatory constraints
• Capacity reserve requirements.

(d) Least cost plan:
• Target Capacity Expansion Planning (Conventional, RES) next 10-15 years
• Prepare screening cost curves for the technology alternatives that are considered for the expansion plan. Prepare annualized cost curves for the different `new build` technologies identified. Include PV and PV+BESS forecasts for +5, +10 and +15 years. The annualized cost curves should be made up of the capital cost, fixed O&M cost, fuel and variable O&M cost for each unit and should be plotted as a function of the capacity factor for each unit. These curves should allow IFC to screen the lowest cost producers among different technologies and fuel combinations under different dispatch factors.
• Estimate the long run marginal cost of the system looking at the levelized cost of the expected new build plant or portfolio.
• Prepare scenarios, with details of which of the Sanaga river projects have been included in each case, to show how these proposed generation facilities would fit into a least cost power generation scenario between 2020 – 2035.
• Supply - Demand Balance – Scenarios for P10, P50, and P90 hydrology

(e) Results and Analysis to include considerations also described in Item 2below as well as:
• The impact on dispatch and effective tariff of the Kikot project for different scenarios and different tariff levels taking into account the unserved energy;
• Stranded/to be stranded IPPs and the competitiveness & stranded asset risk for IFC projects; and
• Represent graphically the merit order of the existing plants if arranged according to variable cost with and without the must-run plants.

2. Operational & Sector Performance
• Describe Existing Network Infrastructure, Congestion, and Expansion Plans in Cameroon.
• Describe key transmission expansion projects in the region that are or could be relevant to exports/imports from/to Cameroon along with timing and implementation risks.
• T&D Losses in Cameroon; consider historic performance, recent performance of loss reduction initiatives, and future plans for effective loss reduction.
• How cross-border exchanges with neighboring countries could take place.

Budget
Please provide a fixed-price, all-inclusive cost estimate for the study.

Schedule
Prepare a first DRAFT report within 8-weeks of signing the consultancy contract and after agreeing with IFC on the final scope of the study; and prepare a final report within 3 weeks of getting the comments to the DRAFT report from IFC.

Deliverables
A written (word) document and a presentation (PowerPoint) on the findings and analysis and Excel spreadsheets with different forecasts and graphs. The report must include an Executive Summary with the key findings.

Input Data
The selected Consultant is responsible of gathering the required input data for this study.
However, IFC will provide the following information to the selected consultant:
- Plan de Développement du Secteur de l’Electricité à l’horizon 2030 (PDSE), STUDI International for the Ministère de l’Energie et de l’Eau, république du Cameroun, July 2014
- Etude d’intégration du projet Nachtigal 420 MW dans le RIS, EDF-CIH, October 2014
- IFC internal Cameroon electricity sector financial spreadsheet model that was used for its internal Nachtigal Amont credit review

Confidentiality Statement
All data and information received from IFC during the course of this assignment shall be treated confidentially and may only be used for the purposes of executi

Documents

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