Study on the Impact of the Russia/Ukraine War and Fossil Fuel Price Volatility on... Tender

Procurement Summary

Country : Afghanistan

Summary : Study on the Impact of the Russia/Ukraine War and Fossil Fuel Price Volatility on the Energy Sector

Deadline : 13 Jul 2022

Other Information

Notice Type : Tender

TOT Ref.No.: 68654254

Document Ref. No. : 1281856

Financier : World Bank (WB)

Purchaser Ownership : Public

Tender Value : Refer Document

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Tender Details

Expression of Interest are invited for Study on the Impact of the Russia/Ukraine War and Fossil Fuel Price Volatility on the Energy Sector in the South Asia Region

The objective of the assignment is to:

(i) Identify key risks faced by SAR countries:
a. in the short- and medium- term, and estimate fiscal impacts due to the current Russia/Ukraine conflict on the energy sector of each of the SAR countries;
b. in the long-term, due to global fossil fuels price volatility, and analyze the related impacts, including on energy and power market dynamics, investment trends, and energy security / energy transition pathways.

(ii) Suggest options which could be adopted by each of the SAR countries to mitigate these impacts on their energy sectors and energy transition ambitions, based on:
a. different Russia/Ukraine crisis exit scenarios;
b. different fossil fuels forecasts and price volatility scenarios.

(iii) Design recommendations for actions which could be taken by the World Bank to assist SAR client countries to face the short- and medium- term effects of the crisis, and longer-term trends.

From a sectoral perspective, the assignment will provide an analysis focusing primarily on the energy sector, but should also take into consideration impacts on key related sectors such as agriculture, industry, and transport.

From a geographical perspective, the assignment will have to provide both (i) a precise country-by-country analysis and (ii) a regional analytical perspective taking into account intraregional interdependence and regional potential solutions.

Scope of work:

To further analyze these trends and their various related impacts, the World Bank seeks the services of a Consultant whose tasks are further elaborated in these Terms of Reference (ToR). Under this study, the selected Consultant(s) is expected to carry several tasks, including but not limited to:

- Task 1: Risk assessment and risk modeling:

o 1.1 Risk assessment at the country level:

- At the country level, identify all key risks which might hamper the energy sector in SAR countries (including commercial, economic, financial, political and physical risks and their inter-dependence) and which could result from (i) the current Russia/Ukraine crisis in the short- to medium-term (ii) global fossil fuels price volatility in the long term.
- Identify and assess all the axes of vulnerability which characterize the SAR countries commercial, economic, financial, political and energy infrastructure systems, which might further expose SAR countries to the identified risks,
- Map all measures and initiatives which have been designed and implemented by SAR countries to respond to the crisis thus far, and its impact if any,
Taking the World Bank analysis on Impact of Ukraine War on Global Trade and Investment, and any other analytics that may become available, identify risks faced by SAR countries due to disruption in global trade.

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