Maldives Power System Expansion Analysis to Support Clean Energy Development Strategies Tender

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Country : Maldives

Summary : Maldives Power System Expansion Analysis to Support Clean Energy Development Strategies

Deadline : 24 May 2021

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Notice Type : Tender

TOT Ref.No.: 52966179

Document Ref. No. : 1274505

Financier : Other Funding Agencies

Purchaser Ownership : -

Tender Value : Refer Document

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Tender Details

Expression of Interest are invited for Maldives Power System Expansion Analysis to Support Clean Energy Development Strategies towards Net Zero in Maldives

Maldives is an island state comprising nearly 1, 200 coral islands grouped into 26 atolls islands spread across 900 kilometers of Indian Ocean. More than 30 percent of the population lives in the capital city Malé, while the rest are distributed across 200 other inhabited islands. Due to its geographical location, geophysical characteristics and limited resources, the Maldives presents a complicated set of challenges for the energy sector. The dispersed island geography poses a challenge for the reliable and efficient operation of these island networks. Electricity is generated and distributed through several independent isolated island-based systems. Each island has its own powerhouse and distribution facility, effectively operating as single-isolated power grids. Most of the power sector relies on diesel for power generation, increasing the country-s economic vulnerability to global oil prices, as well as the overall Maldives carbon footprint. In 2019, the country imported over 700, 000 metric tons of fuel, 80 percent of which consisted of diesel fuel. This translated into a costly import bill of US$465 million, equivalent to a fifth of all imports and 8.3 percent of GDP. While diesel imports can range from US$240 million to US$400 million annually, these costs can be even higher when oil prices rise, resulting in budget uncertainty and a large fiscal burden on the Government of Maldives (GoM). Due to this, island grids like the ones in Maldives that are reliant on expensive diesel generation are usually good candidates to move to solar PV based generation systems. Reducing the country-s dependence on imported fuel and investing in renewable energy is a key priority of the Government of Maldives. Supportive policies and programs have been made to effect, such as the National Strategic Action Plan (2019-2023) (SAP), to achieve the ambitious renewable energy goals of the country. The recent commitments made by the Government towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2030, announced by the President during the UN Climate Ambition Summit, further highlights the country-s dedication towards this energy transition. However, such a transition needs to be carefully planned so that renewable energy can not only bring down fiscal burdens due to diesel generation, but also that the power system would remain reliable, secure and capable to balance the variability of these generation systems. Maldives is endowed with good solar resource and with the decline in battery energy storage system (BESS) costs - a PV-BESS combination (combining photovoltaic generation and BESS) presents a potent solution to support the transition to a clean power system. To aid the Government of Maldives in its exploration of alternative options, the World Bank organized a preliminary study to assess the value of energy storage for enabling the integration of solar PV to displace diesel generation. With plans of moving in this direction being further reinforced through an endorsement of the Energy Storage Roadmap by the GoM, the need for a holistic assessment of the system has become imperative for facilitating this energy transition towards clean energy. Island power systems are typically small - essentially a distribution system with embedded generation that is readily amenable for distribution automation, especially as PV-BESS and electric vehicles (EVs) are introduced in the system. Introduction of solar PV and EVs of significant quantum would in fact require an advanced distribution system SCADA along with smart grid systems that can help with control and coordination of the different assets to deal with solar PV variability, active control of the PV systems, congestion management, controlling non-essential customer load, EV charging, etc. Due to the Government's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2030, it will also be important to assess the impacts of any sizeable increase in the number of electric vehicles charging through the power system. It is also important to explore the different options of how a coordinated or centralized charging regime such as for the electric two-wheelers could in fact be one of the potential cost-effective solutions to better manage the solar PV variability and enable further integration of these resources. The overarching goal of the study is to assess the impact of the various technologies such as solar PV, BESS, EVs, etc. on the power system and to formulate a package of possible technology options and indicative scenarios that could be undertaken to work towards carbon neutrality for a few island power systems. This will include recommendations of the different technology options and critical investment requirements to support such a transition. Ultimately this study will provide crucial recommendations to the World Bank of what options are viable in order to inform its portfolio in the Maldives, as well as how it could be support the Government of Maldives in meeting its climate and energy ambitions. This activity will be conducted with close collaboration with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) that is co-financing the ARISE project, and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) as partners to support the client in this energy transition.

The main objective of the proposed consultancy work is divided into three main objectives as follows:

1) Power sector analysis for VRE and EV integration in Maldives

The objective of this component is to formulate least-cost scenarios for the expansion of the Maldives power system and explore different development strategies to support the clients energy transition towards net-zero carbon targets. These informative scenarios would be proposed for the following key island systems: Greater Male region (Male, Hulhumale, Thilafushi, Gulhi Falhu) and Addu. This activity aims to inform the World Bank of how best the power system could be developed, including generation and infrastructure requirements (solar PV, BESS, thermal generation, etc.) to meet the projected demand considering inter alia introduction of EVs in Maldives. The study would involve power-system optimization analyses in order to inform several scenarios (including a least-cost scenario) to expand the thermal, solar PV, BESS, EVs and other generation technologies over the study horizon up to 2040 including:
- Exploring deep decarbonization pathways and generation technologies to support this transition;
- Economic RE capacity options including roof-top solar PV, floating solar PV and other RE technologies that can be added to the system within the study horizon;
- Creating scenarios on impact of EV on system load;
- BESS investment requirements to go with PV-EV integration;
- Investment requirements on power infrastructure such as transformer capacity addition
and upgrade requirements to the feeder capacity ; and
- Optimal dispatch strategies for the different scenarios.

In addition to identifying the investment needs, the study will also indicate the infrastructure requirements (hardware and software requirements) to support the least-cost generation expansion development strategy. This will include the need for smart metering and operational strategies that the island system operators will need to run the system economically and securely. This assessment includes the following but not limited to:
a. Requirements for upgrading the generation control center and addition of Distribution SCADA system for effective integration of the different generation and distributed energy resources;
b. Smart grid options for distribution automation (DA) requirements including the incorporation of smart metering infrastructure and relevant operation strategies;
c. Strategies for smart charging of EVs including exploring the option of changing the pricing regime to align consumption (including EV charging) to system marginal cost (including PV generation) to reduce system operating costs; and
d. Measures to introduce coordinated charging of EV batteries.

2) Assessment of EV potential in Maldives

The objective of this component is to look at different economic and technically viable options that could be implemented to support electric mobility in the context of Maldives, through a multi-options analysis. This would include public transport, private vehicles, two-wheelers, ferries and associated charging infrastructure. The study will also analyze the current relevant policies and regulatory environment and develop indicative investment strategies as well as financial and policy incentives that could be recommended to promote electric mobility. This study would then reflect on the power system expansion scenarios in the previous component to formulate scenarios of how EV could be supported in the Maldives, and how a roadmap could be formulated by the client to do so.

3) Study scenarios of how Maldives could make significant progress to reach net zero emissions by 2030

In light of the Government's recent commitments to carbon neutrality by 2030, announced by the President during the UN Climate Ambition Summit, it will be necessary to understand what realistic avenues could be taken to reach (or at least make a significant step towards reaching) this objective. The scope will include studying the renewable energy and e-mobility baseline capacity, as well as capacity addition scenario to get to net-zero by 2030.

There are six main steps of the consultancy work that would need to be covered as follows: 1. Load forecast and analysis needed for the power system expansion studies: a. Review of available demand forecasts and develop a view on the baseline, high and low peak/energy forecasts to be used in discussion with STELCO and ministry; b. Develop representative hourly load profile to be used for forecasting and EV impact a

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